2026 Midterms • 116 Profiles • 12 Races
AMERICA FIRST STATUS
2026 Election Battleground
Tap a state to view race details
Toss-Up
Lean R
Lean D
Safe R
LOADING MAP...
12 Races Tracked
Toss-Up:2
Lean R:5
Lean D:3
Safe R:2
Primary:3
TX — Senate
Texas Senate
Toss-Up (Primary)
May 26, 2026
GOP PRIMARY RUNOFF
Ken PaxtonRLEADING
Senate Candidate
71%
John CornynR
U.S. Senator (Inc.)
8%
🏛️ Lobby Exposure
Paxton
Minimal
AIPAC
Cornyn
$1.84M
AIPACZIONISTCIA
Status: Paxton 40.7% vs Cornyn 41.9% in R1 — runoff is a dead heat
Stakes: The defining primary of 2026. Populist insurgent vs DC establishment. Trump has not yet endorsed.
Winner faces Democrat James Talarico in Nov. TX hasn't elected a Dem senator since 1988.
NC — Senate
North Carolina Senate
Toss-Up
Nov 3, 2026
GENERAL ELECTION
Michael WhatleyR
Senate Candidate
36%
Roy CooperD
Senate Candidate
6%
🏛️ Lobby Exposure
Whatley
Unknown — likely exposed
AIPAC
Cooper
no data
Status: Polling is tight. Cooper has fundraising edge ($18M vs $5M).
Stakes: Open seat — Tillis retiring. Could determine Senate majority. Expected to be most expensive race in history.
Whatley has Trump endorsement. Cooper has statewide name ID and winning record.
ME — Senate
Maine Senate
Lean D Pickup
Nov 3, 2026
GENERAL ELECTION
Susan CollinsR
U.S. Senator (Inc.)
4%
🏛️ Lobby Exposure
Collins
~20% of fundraising
AIPAC
Status: Collins is only GOP senator in a state Harris won by 7pts.
Stakes: Dem pickup opportunity. Collins vulnerable — AIPAC funding scandal, moderate record.
Dem nominee TBD (Janet Mills or Graham Platner). Collins has $8M+ cash on hand.
AK — Senate
Alaska Senate
Lean R
Nov 3, 2026
GENERAL ELECTION
Dan SullivanRLEADING
U.S. Senator (Inc.)
21%
Mary PeltolaD
Senate Candidate
10%
🏛️ Lobby Exposure
Sullivan
$1.4M career total
AIPACZIONIST
Peltola
no data
Status: Sullivan is incumbent in a state Trump won by 14pts.
Stakes: Peltola proved she can win statewide in 2022. Sullivan supported ACA subsidies — vulnerable from right.
Could be competitive if national environment favors Dems.
GA — Senate
Georgia Senate
Lean D Hold
Nov 3, 2026
GENERAL ELECTION
Jon OssoffDLEADING
U.S. Senator (Inc.)
4%
Status: Ossoff won narrowly in 2020 runoff. GOP candidate TBD.
Stakes: Trump won GA in 2024. Ossoff is vulnerable but no strong GOP challenger yet.
Key state for Senate control.
OH — Senate Special
Ohio Senate (Special)
Lean R
Nov 3, 2026
GENERAL ELECTION
Jon HustedRLEADING
U.S. Senator (App.)
24%
Sherrod BrownD
Senate Candidate
13%
🏛️ Lobby Exposure
Husted
Confirmed recipient — posed for AIPAC photos
AIPACZIONISTCIA
Brown
no data
CIA
Status: Husted is appointed incumbent. Ohio has trended right.
Stakes: Vance's old seat. Brown trying comeback after 2024 loss.
Brown's economic populism could play, but OH is now R+10.
IA — Senate
Iowa Senate
Likely R
Nov 3, 2026
GENERAL ELECTION
Ashley HinsonRLEADING
Senate Candidate
33%
Status: Hinson is Trump-endorsed in a state Trump won by 8pts.
Stakes: Ernst retiring. Open seat. Hinson is establishment pick.
Dem candidate TBD. Iowa has shifted significantly right.
LA — Senate
Louisiana Senate
Safe R (Primary Battle)
2026
GOP PRIMARY
Bill CassidyRLEADING
U.S. Senator (Inc.)
12%
John FlemingR
Senate Candidate
57%
🏛️ Lobby Exposure
Cassidy
$327K+ career (Track AIPAC)
AIPACZIONIST
Fleming
no data
CIA
Status: Cassidy is incumbent but facing grassroots primary challenge.
Stakes: Cassidy voted to convict Trump. Fleming challenging from the right.
No Dem threat. The real race is the primary.
KY — Senate
Kentucky Senate
Safe R (Open Seat)
2026
GOP PRIMARY
Daniel CameronRLEADING
Senate Candidate
33%
Andy BarrR
Senate Candidate
22%
🏛️ Lobby Exposure
Cameron
no data
AIPACCIA
Barr
Likely significant — Financial Services + AIPAC overlap heavily
AIPACCIA
Status: Cameron has Trump endorsement from 2023 gov race.
Stakes: McConnell retiring. Both candidates are establishment — question is degree.
No Dem threat. McConnell's donor network flows to winner.
FL — Senate Special
Florida Senate (Special)
Likely R
Nov 3, 2026
GENERAL ELECTION
Ashley MoodyRLEADING
U.S. Senator (App.)
34%
Status: Moody appointed by DeSantis. Rubio's old seat.
Stakes: DeSantis-orbit appointment. Will she be independent or a rubber stamp?
FL is now solidly R. Dem challenger TBD.
NE — Senate
Nebraska Senate
Lean R
Nov 3, 2026
GENERAL ELECTION
Pete RickettsRLEADING
U.S. Senator (Inc.)
24%
Dan OsbornI
Senate Candidate
29%
🏛️ Lobby Exposure
Ricketts
no data
Osborn
no data
CIA
Status: Ricketts is incumbent but Osborn lost by only 6pts in 2024.
Stakes: Osborn is a genuine populist outsider. Billionaire vs union leader.
NE Dem Party endorsed Osborn. Could be a surprise.
NH — Senate
New Hampshire Senate
Lean D Hold
Sep 8, 2026
PRIMARIES
John E. SununuR
Senate Candidate
23%
Chris PappasD
Senate Candidate
6%
Status: Open seat — Shaheen retiring. Both parties have contested primaries.
Stakes: Purple state. Sununu (brother of popular ex-gov) has Trump endorsement.
Pappas is favored for Dem nom. Sununu vs Scott Brown in GOP primary.